An In-Depth Statistical Analysis of "Which Marathon Should You Run This Year in New York City on November 4?"

An In-Depth Statistical Analysis of "Which Marathon Should You Run This Year in New York City on November 4?"

It's drawing day, and we understand that it can be a stressful couple of hours for people hoping to run the 2018 TCS New York City Marathon.

During the application period, we presented you with a quiz to determine Which Marathon Should You Run This Year in New York City on November 4. After gathering more than 1,000 responses, we've tabulated the results and have assigned our top team of analytics experts (ed. note: just me, actually) to present our findings.

So now, we invite you to take a break from the constant refresh, refresh, refreshing of your bank account page and your My NYRR page. Close those windows, find some nice, calming music to listen to, and come along with us for a few minutes as we take a "deep dive" into the data behind our quiz.

(Plus, we've got a bunch of charts and and graphs coming your way, so it might look like you're doing actual work!)

With all that said, we begin with our first question...

What Are You Usually Up to On a Sunday Morning?

We gave you four options for this one—brunch, a long run, sleeping in, or watching football. Here's how the answers broke out:

Answer Percentage
Brunch 13.6%
A long run 55.0%
Sleeping in 25.1%
Watching football 6.2%


And we have responses for each and every category of quiz-takers here. If you answered...

  • Brunch: The TCS New York City Marathon start village on Fort Wadsworth offers a buffet of 40,800 PowerBars, 60,000 8-ounce bottles of Poland Spring® Brand 100% Natural Spring Water, 16,000 servings of Gatorade® Prime packets, 2,160 gallons of Gatorade® Endurance Formula, and enough ground coffee to make about 65,000 cups.
    It's no eggs benedict, avo toast, and mimosas, but hey, it's a serviceable meal for someone about to run a marathon.
  • A long run: Well, what's a better long run than one that lasts 26.2 miles and covers all five boroughs?
  • Sleeping in: You're in luck! Daylight savings time ends on November 4, so you can get an extra hour of sleep...before you leave your house/apartment/hotel to run the TCS New York City Marathon.
  • Watching football: The response for this one can vary, depending on your definition of "football." Chances are, you'll miss the Premier League matches in the morning—you'll be a bit busy, what with your run and all—but you should finish in time for the MLS playoff matches and the NFL games later in the day.

The clear winner here was "A long run," so for a quiz oriented toward marathoners, we're off to a good start!

Let's move now to question 2:

Which Borough of New York City Would You Like to Explore More?

Five options here: The Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island. Here's how the people voted.

Manhattan came out on top here, with Brooklyn a respectable distance behind. No matter how you voted, though, if you're running the TCS New York City Marathon, you're going to all five boroughs in one day.

(And if you'd like to get a preview of each of the boroughs, we've got some great races you can run before the big one in November.)

On to question 3: 

What's Your Average Pace in a Marathon?

So for the 11 folks that responded with "Less than 6:00," I guess they don't have to worry about drawing day—they would have earned guaranteed entry. But for the rest of everyone, here are a few "fast facts":

  • The pace group with the highest total was the 8:00 to 9:00 per mile group, followed by the 9:00 to 10:00 per mile group just one vote behind. The 10:00 to 11:00 per mile group rounded out the top three.
    • The average finish time in the 2017 TCS New York City Marathon was 4:39:08, or 10:39 per mile.
  • If you're in those later pace groups, or if you're not even sure what your pace might be, don't worry about it! Whenever you do finish, NYRR staff will be there to celebrate with you.
  • And if anyone wants to compare paces with the overall event records, here's how they stand:
    • Men's runners—2:05:06 (4:46 per mile)
    • Women's runners—2:22:31 (5:26 per mile)
    • Women's wheelchair athletes—1:43:04 (3:55 per mile)
    • Men's wheelchair athletes—1:29:22 (3:25 per mile!)

So now we move into the real substantive part of the quiz—the part that separates the marathoners from the...other marathoners. Question 4!

How Many New Friends Would You Like to Make This Year?

Unsurprisingly, most people were not looking to settle for just one friend, but also weren't looking to commit to an additional 50,000 friends—the majority here landed on a comfortable middle-ground with "A few."

I would, however, like to give a shout-out to the 30 percent of respondents who are looking to make 50,000 friends this year. And for those 30-percenters, we've got a great opportunity for you to follow through on your goal: The TCS New York City Marathon.

In 2017, a total of 50,766 runners crossed the finish line in Central Park, a shade behind the event's all-time high of 51,394 finishers from 2016. In either case, the five boroughs host the world's largest marathon, so you'll have all 50,000-plus potential friends out there on the course on November 4—plus 10,000 volunteers and one million spectators, just for good measure.

(Just some advance warning, though: If you do make 50,000 friends, you might have to make some tough decisions vis-á-vis your Facebook page. Apparently they only allow you to have a maximum of 5,000 friends. But those are details you can iron out later. Anyway...)

What's Your Sign?

Did you know that your astrological sign can determine your marathon PR?

You didn't, because that's not true, but we threw a question about it in here anyway. 

Here's the distribution of astrological signs across quiz respondents:

At a glance, this pie donut chart looks pretty even, so maybe we should try something else...

That helps visualize it a little better, but I'm left still wondering: How does this compare with the expected outcomes for each astrological sign? Is there any correlation between when someone was born and whether they were more likely to run a marathon?

To find out—or at least, to get slightly closer to an answer—we compared these totals with the astrological signs of all of last year's TCS New York City Marathon finishers. Here's what we found in our expected vs. actual results:

So, actually, if you're an Aquarius, then there might be something to this idea!

But for every other sign, no, there's no direct link between your sign and your likelihood to run a marathon. Kudos, however, to anyone who took the quiz as an Aries, a Taurus, a Leo, a Capricorn, or a Pisces—you turned out in higher-than-expected numbers!

And now, with that Very Important Question addressed, we move on to the final, and Actually Most Important Question from the quiz...

Which Kind of Dog Is the Best Kind of Dog?

For this question, I feel that it's best to leave it up to the people.

So many dogs!

border collie

Whoodle

All dogs

beagle

Corgi

Labrador

Any

Bernese Mountain Dog or Pitt Bull

Cat

Any

westie

beagle

Any kind of dog.

None

pug

Wheaton terrier

Border Collie

bulldog

a floppy eared dog

Lab

Cocker

every kind

Boxer

Whippet

Rottweiler

French bulldog

German Shepherd

Lab

none

Rottweiler

no dog

doberman

Bulldog

Mytt

maltese

Lab

fox terrier

Teckel

mutt

hound

Lab

Shnoodle

dachshund

Golden

all dogs

Huskie

golden retriever

Cavalier King Charles Spaniel

Labrador retriever

Labrador

bulldog

Pitbull

Golden Retriever

Boston Terrier

Golden Retreiver

Your dog

none

Greyhound

terrior

CORGI

Shorkie

Japanese Chin / Chihuahua / One with a stray dad from Puerto Rico

German shepherd

Pig

My own

golden retriever

Siberian Husky

Friendly

Mine

pointer

Irish terrier

Fluffy

German shorthair pointer

Good dogs

good one

Labrador retrievers

happy bois

irish setter

german shepard

Chow

coal

all dogs!

Chow chow

labradoodle

Rescued

Golden Retriever

cats

golden retriever

German Shepherd

Cat

German Shephard

Schnautzer

lap

every kind

Huskies

Airedale

Rat Terrier

My dog

Lab

labradoodle

Mutt

Labrador

mutts

None

English bulldog

Goldendoodle

Rhodesian Ridgeback

all

a

Taco

catahoula leopard dog

hot dog

yorkie

None

?

all of them

Snoop Dog

Springer spaniel

Boxer

Cocker Spaniel

GOlden

Chihuahua

Yorkie

Shiba

Ehh

Border collie

Labrador

Jack Russell Terrier

Hot dog

Lab

Boston terrier

All of them

Portuguese water dog

Labradoodle

Tibetan

Hot Dog

Daschund

Labodor

a dog

Dachshund

Golden

None

Any dog !

Boxer

independent kind

Greyhound

Labrador

Australian shepherd dog

Hot dog

Malteses

Cute

Beagle

Shiba inu

Cat

Pug

Terrier

Boxer

Big dog

Greyhound

Sheltie

Spaniel

Beagle

Labrador

Puggle

any

Golden

Any

Dacksund

Hot dog

None

Lab

Bernhardiner

Golden retriever

Bulldog

German Shepard

Golden retreiver

Deutscher Kurzhaar

black Labrador

Mutt

anyone

Beagle

Bulldog

All

Boxer

Labradoodle

Golden Retriever

Any

Pit bull

Corgi

Golden retriever

German Shepard

Lab

Labrador

German shorthaired pointer

golden retriever

All dogs

Sheltie

Canan

Sheltie

German Shepard

husky

Any

Any

Mine

any kind

Black lab

My dog

kuvasz

Lab

Bulldog

Golden Retriever

__

Every kind

no dog

Lab

Lab

Hot dog

Hotdog

stati

None

German Shepherd

Welsh Pembroke Corgi

None

Golden retriever

Cat

Mini Goldendoodle

Poodle

Canine

Labrador

Rhodesian Ridgeback

Rottweiler

All

One that can run with you

Duck rolling retriever

Mini Goldendoodle

Labrador

Mutt

Yorkie

cuddle

All

Husky

Shitzu

Chihuahua

Berner senner

Small & hypoallergenic

Terrier

Corgi

Golden Retriever

Goldendoodle

pug

Yorkie

German Shepherd

Mine

corgi

Retriever

Cavalier

Labrador

Belgian Shepherd

English cocker spaniel

Anyone

West highland terrior

Pitbul

All of them

Border terrier

Jack russel terrier

A runner dog

None

Pitbul

Berner sennen

Na

Golden retriever

German short haired pointer

Poodle

All!

Great dane

Labrador

Beagle

Labradodlee

Mutt

lab

No dog

Mm

Golden Retriever

Labrador

Border colie

One that doesn_t believe in astrology

Jack russel

Husky

Labrador

Labs

Poodles

Hungarian vizsla

Cocker spaniel

Golden Retriever

Dashund

My dog

Mutt

Bulldog

None

golden

None

Mutt

Yorkie

Labrador

Co_iie

No

My daschaund

Labrador

Lab

all

Beagle

Black lab

golden retriever

Yorkshire terrier

Collie

Any dog

Labador

All

Australian Shepherd

Golden retriever

Lab

Cat

Mix breed

Collie

Cockapoo

Labrador

Labrador

None

Golden

Retriever

golden retriever

Cocker spaniel

Boxer

Shih tzu

Al of them

Husky

None

pomeranian

Mixed breed

golden retriever

Shiva I I

rescue dog

All dogs

German Shepherd

big

Labrador

Labrador

Boxrr

Schnauzer

Large

Lab

Any dog

Cat

Puggle

German shepperd

Hotdog

Labrador

Yorkie

Shetland Sheepdog

Any

Husky

Mutt

Australian Shepherd

Hot dog

Lab

Lab

Boxer

Schnauzer

Westie

Havanese

Greyhound

loyal dog

Boxer

Australian shepard

Pug

Labrador

Jazzy

Cat

Weimeraner

Small

Happy

Any dog lol

Labrador

All dogs

None

Pug

Tibetal Spaniel

Cat

German Shepherd

Lab

Lab

Any

Labradoodle

All

chow chow

Airdale

Boxer

All

Cockerspaniel

Maltese

collie

All

lab

Retriever

JackRussell terrier

Pit

Labrador

All

None

Husky

Poodle

Hot

Boxer

golden retriever

Puddel

Pug

The one at the pet store.

Haski

Lab!

Hot

Any dog

Greyhound

dackel

Spaniel

Labrador

any

Chiwava

Miniature schnauzer

Corgi

Labrador

German Shepherd

None

Chencho

German Shepherd

None

c

Rottweiler

Labrador

Shiva Inu

Labrador

Pug

Lab

Bulldog

No dog

Boxer

Mini Aussie

Big one

Lab

English sheepdog

Dog

Cocker spaniel

Mine

Border Collie

Lab

Cute ones

Labrador

All dogs

any

Shihtzu

Labrador

Husky

All dogs

Hot-dog

Mutt

Beagle

Bouvier

Labrador retriever

None

Bulldog

Poodle

Red Setter

Golden

Boxer

Airedale

Mine

Labrador

German Short Haired Pointer

Mine

Staffy

Mine

Jack russel

Mine

Hot dog

Puli

All of them!

all dogs

Labrador

Labor

Greyhound

none

none

Huskey

Golden retriever

Chocolate lab

Black Lab

Golden retriever

Daschund

Beagle

Lab

any dog

Cavalier spaniel

Sassa the dog

Golden retriver

Border Aussie

mongrol

cavalier king charles spaniel

Goldendoodle

Boxer

Lab

Chinaware

Chihuahua

Rottweiler

Mine

none

1

Bulldog

Schnauzer

Golden retriever

French bulldog

Mutt

Shiba Inu

Fox

Great Dane

Golden doodle

A pound dog

All

Mutt

Yorkie

Lab

Chihuahua

Pokies

Beagle

shih tzu

Any

Labrador

Happy

Labrador

Golden Retreiver

My dog

Rescue dog

Dachshund

Shitzu

Terrier

Airfare

Basset hound

Xx

Labrador

Labrador

Golden retriever

A greyhound

j

Golden Retreiver

Lab

Small

Rottweiler

Poodle

Pug

Lab

Dogo

Magyar viszla

Bernese mountain dog

Vizsla

Cat

Akita

German sheperd

Welsh Corgi

Golden

Boxer

Pit bull

Labrador retriever

Any

Small

German shepherd

Big

Rescue

Labrador

Hot dog

Springer spaniel

King Charles

No dog

Pitt Bull

Labrador Retriever

Mine

Three

Lab

Mine

Golden retriever

Havanese

Poodle

Labrador

Bernedoodle

Rescue

German pastor

Bulldog

Blue heeler

huskies

Border collie

Labrador

Beagle

dog

Labrador

Labrador

golden

Barks

Rottweiller

All pups

German Shepherd rescue

German shepherd

Boston Terrier

Dog

Labrador

Black Lab

Mine

Mongrel

Collie

Terrier

Beagle

?

Lab

Shepherd

Any kind

A dog

None

Rescue dog!

Bull dog

Beagle

Beagle

All

Vizsla

Mutt

Golden retriever

Mutt

all dogs are the best kind of dog

husky

hot

Lhasa apso

Mine

Baset

No dog

Fast one

My dogs!

Terrier

Lab

Mine

Corgi

Poodle

Boxer

Beagle

Basset Hound

Boxer

Shepherd

A running dog

Golden Retriever

Hot

Golden doodle

Rottweiler

Sheperd

Sheltie

Jack Russell

Lab

Beagle

A happy one

german shepard

Shepperd

Australian Shepherd

Labradoodle

German Shepherd

Lab

Pitbull

None

Bull dog

Lasapoo

Dog

Mutts

All

Lab

All

Maltese

Hot dog

None

Cocker spaniel

Hot dog

Golden doodle

Lab

running buddy

Lab

Boxer

Golden retriever or Labrador

I don_t know

Bernesse

Beagel

Mine

Labrador

All dogs!

Mutt

Bulldog

Standard poodle

Poddle mix

None

Lab

Golden retriever

Beagle

Any

Mutt

Newfie

Rescue

Pomeranian

Golden Retriever

Hot dog

Beagle

beagle

Cavalier

Doberman

Chihuahua

Golden retriever

golden

Jack Russell

All dogs

None

Lab

Labrador

Lab

My dog

sheltie

schnauzer

schnauzer

None

Bearded collie

Pom

Landseer

none

Golden

boxer

Puddel

Lab

None!

Lab

Yorkie

none

Lab

Labrador

Vizsla

Mine

Min pin

any

Mut

Australian Shepard

Beagle

Any

Schnauzer

Retriever

Schipperke

Mutt

A happy dog

Lab

Beagle

Vizsla

Golden retriever

Cavalier king spaniel

BORDER COLLIE

St bernard

Rottweiler

none

retriever

Germany god

Boxer

Hot dog

Golden

All dogs are good

Really

lab

Pug

Labrador

Fun

pug

Rhodesian Ridgeback

Yorkie

Cavalier king charles

dunno

My dog

Schnoodle

none

Maltese

Golden retriever

None

a running dog

Golden retriever

Schnauzer

Pug

Labradoodle

Snooo

Labrador

Labrador

lab

irish terrier

HOT DOG

JRT

Don't like dogs

Staffordshire Bull Terrier

Labrador

Labrador

Collie

cocker spanial

Border collie

border collie

Dalmatian

Labador

Golden Retreiver

Visla

Labrador

Labrador

None

Labrador

caniche

Husky

Lab

Labrador

Cocker spaniel

Irish Terrier

Labrador

None

Husky

Cavapoo

No dogs

Borde collie

Labradoodle

Cocker spaniel

Jack Russell

Labrador

a stuffed one

Cat

German Shepherd

I don_t like dogs

Great Dane

Staffordshire

Dog

Bulldog

Poodle

one that doesn't bite

Cocker

Mixed breed

Poodle

Labrador

Beagle

golder retriever

Aussi

Bull dog

Not sure

Chinese dog

Lab

Jack Russell

Pomeranian

Bulldog

All

cocker spaniel

all dogs

Bull dog

None

Vizsla

Hot dog

Hotdog

None

?

Pit bull

a cat

Any

My dog

Labador

All

One that doesn't bark too much

Schnauzer

Boxer

Cocker spaniel

Labrador

Wherever

Hot Dog

None

dog

Golden retriever

None

Poodle

Chiwawa

All dogs

Cavalier

Golden Retriever

Labrador

Beagle

Bouvier Bernois

My dog

Labrador

Lab

french bulldog

active

Labrador

Any

All Kinds

schnauzer

Every kind

All

Yellow Lab

Sproodle

Cocker spaniel

The one that goes along on a long run

Labrador

mutt

cockapoo

Border collie

all

English Bulldog

Frenchie

American bulldog

No dog

T

-

All kinds

Any

English cocker spaniel

All dogs

Husky

Jack Russell

Golden

Labrador

Pigeon

Labrador

Lab

golden doodle

any

golden retriever

Bernese Mountain Dog

Labradoodle

Beagle

Greyhound

A

Labrador

lab

All dogs are the best dogs

Mastiff

Hot dog

Cody

Lab

Shiba Inu

Beagle

Vizla

Labrador

Min pin

golden retriever

Dachshund

German Shepherd

German Shepherd

Pit bull

German Shepard

Dog

Dog

German Shepherd

Mine

Vira lata

Labrador

labrador

LAB

Lasonapso

Border colkue

PUG

B_xer

No dog

Dachshund

Bernedoodle

Weimaraner

None

all dogs

golden retreiver

Westie

sheppard

Boxer

Havanese

Mutt

hot

Hot dog

husky

Yorkshire terrier

french bull dog

K9

Golden retriever

Choe

All of them

I don_t like dog

Jack russel

Maltipoo

Golden lab

Golden Retriever

All dogs are great

Beagle

Dane

Any

German Shepherd

All

Labradoodle

All of them. They're all good boys

puppies

puppies

None

Golden

Beagle

Pit bull

Bishon frise

Dalmatian

PITBULL

Yorkshire

All of them

Yorkie

Any dog

Jug

Dachsund

ALL OF THEM

All dogs

Yos

Goldendoodle

Weimaraner

Any

Beagle

None

Poodle

boston terrier

Labrador

In the interest of transparency, we have listed every single answer that quiz-takers provided in a box to the right.

You can spend a few minutes watching as that scrolls through all 1,000-plus answers, or you can read on below for some of my personal favorites.

The person who wrote "a floppy eared dog": So simple, but it keeps you from being limited to just one breed—I like it!

Bernhardiner: Seeing this answer made me realize that people from outside the U.S. were reading and taking this quiz. (It's the German name for the Saint Bernard.) I love the Beethoven movies, so thank you to whoever wrote this!

Dalmatian: Speaking of dog movies, only two people wrote in this answer, which is, by my count, about 99 short of what we should've expected. Even so, I'll take it.

"One that doesn't believe in astrology": Seems like this person did not like question #5, but this answer made me laugh, so we'll call it even.

The 27 people who wrote "hot dog": You're all great.

The 11 people who wrote "my dog": I hope your dog knows how great and loved they are.

The 56 people who wrote "no dog": Get out.
But oddly enough, the exact same number of people wrote "all dogs" or "every dog," so I'm not sure what to make of this.

And finally...
The person who wrote "One who can run with you": Unfortunately, your pup can't run the TCS New York City Marathon with you.
But!
They can cheer you on from the sidelines, as this lab/beagle mix proved last year:

Well, folks, that's the end of our quiz. However it works out with your TCS New York City Marathon application, I hope you've had fun here, and I hope this has been a good way to fill up some time before you go right back to checking your bank account every five minutes.

 

 

 

 

Oh, also, I suppose now is a good time to admit that no matter what answers you submitted for the quiz, everyone got the same result: The 2018 TCS New York City Marathon. Bye now!

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